Dec 8, 2025 Dr. Stephan Lemkens
ShareAs 2025 draws to a close, the financial industry is already focusing on the developments that will define the year ahead. Many trends are clearly emerging. Here, we examine seven themes that will be especially relevant for European financial institutions in 2026 – technologically, regulatory, and strategically.
1. AI-Powered Banking Services and Autonomous Systems
Artificial intelligence will remain a major growth driver in banking throughout 2026, shaping customer service, risk management, and the fight against financial crime. Beyond traditional chatbots, more complex systems are coming into focus: AI agents capable of independently executing tasks and orchestrating entire process chains.
In 2026, these agents will be increasingly integrated into daily operations. They monitor processes in real time, detect anomalies and unusual patterns, and prepare decision options. As a result, they take over more and more operational activities previously performed or supervised by employees.
Agentic AI offers particularly strong potential in financial crime prevention. Intelligent systems can autonomously handle KYC checks, transaction monitoring, and standardized case processing, increasing both speed and accuracy.
Banks and payment service providers will also rely more heavily on these AI-driven assistants in customer communication. Instead of interacting with human call-center staff, customers will increasingly speak with digital agents that handle issues such as suspected fraud. However, complex or high-risk decisions will continue to remain in the hands of human experts.
With the EU AI Act taking effect, regulatory requirements for developing, operating, and monitoring AI systems are rising. Banks must build robust governance structures to ensure responsible and compliant AI deployment.
Bottom line: 2026 will be a balancing act – leveraging AI as a strategic advantage while keeping regulatory risks and customer satisfaction in check.
2. Rising Fraud and Sophisticated Social Engineering Schemes
A significant global increase in fraud cases is underway – a development many experts refer to as a “scamdemic.” Social engineering attacks in particular are surging, exploiting human emotions and trust to steal sensitive data or initiate fraudulent transactions.
Common schemes include:
- Phishing and smishing
- CEO fraud
- Investment scams
- Identity theft
- Romance scams
- Deepfake fraud
A key driver is the growing use of generative AI, which enables criminals to create highly realistic text, messages, voices, and even videos. Where poor language or unprofessional formatting once served as red flags, AI-generated scams are now nearly flawless and highly personalized.
International fraud networks are also becoming more sophisticated. In some regions, entire “scam factories” operate with industrial efficiency – from data harvesting to initial outreach and money laundering.
Instant payments further intensify the challenge, as there is almost no time to recall fraudulent transactions.
Consequence: Financial institutions must strengthen awareness programs, implement AI-based fraud detection, and enhance cooperation with authorities.
3. Widespread Adoption of Behavioral Biometrics and Hybrid AI in Fraud Prevention
On the defensive side, banks and payment providers are significantly expanding their technical toolkits. Behavioral biometrics – analyzing typical user patterns – are becoming a core component of modern security architectures. AI systems learn individual behavioral traits such as typing rhythm, mouse movements, touch gestures, or login routines. Deviations from this “digital fingerprint” can reveal fraud early.
Many institutions initiated pilot programs in 2025; in 2026, behavior-based models are expected to be widely integrated into fraud-management platforms.
Banks are also increasingly adopting hybrid AI approaches, which combine rule-based logic from domain experts with self-learning algorithms to achieve high detection rates. Systems like RiskShield make decisions within milliseconds – an essential capability for instant payments to block suspicious transactions in time.
Blockchain applications are gaining traction as well, for example to support tamper-proof digital identities or transparent transaction chains.
Overall: In 2026, banks will invest heavily in proven, high-performance security technologies to keep pace with increasingly professional fraud operations.
4. Digital Sovereignty and Data Protection Gain Importance
Europe has been pursuing greater independence in key technologies and data ecosystems for several years, and this trend will accelerate further in 2026. Banks and consumers alike are placing stronger emphasis on keeping data secure within European infrastructures and reducing reliance on non-European providers.
A prime example is the European Payments Initiative (EPI) and its new brand “Wero,” which aims to establish a European payment platform as an alternative to established, predominantly US-dominated systems. The goals are clear: payment sovereignty, maximum data protection standards, and a competitive European payment ecosystem.
This trend is fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, economic dependencies, and numerous cases of data misuse. Awareness of digital autonomy is rising – and with it, the willingness to adopt European solutions.
5. Real-Time Payments and Cross-Border Transactions on the Rise
2026 will be the year when real-time payments become fully established as the standard. Regulation has driven this shift: Since January 2025, banks in the eurozone must process incoming instant payments; since October 2025, outgoing instant payments as well – without charging customers more than for standard transfers.
Customers now expect speed, transparency, and 24/7 services as a given. The European Commission sees instant payments as a cornerstone of a modern digital economy. Market analysts anticipate that the share of real-time payments will multiply significantly in the coming years.
Cross-border payment modernization is also accelerating. Both businesses and consumers now expect immediate, low-cost, and transparent international transactions. The global rollout of ISO 20022 – the new messaging standard – plays a key role, enabling a unified data language, enhanced interoperability, and greater automation.
The result: Payments are becoming more connected, faster, and more global – directly benefiting consumers and businesses.
6. Stricter Regulations and Rising Compliance Requirements
In 2026, the financial sector faces an exceptionally dense regulatory agenda. With the new EU anti-money laundering package, Europe is undergoing a fundamental system shift. Following its publication in June 2024, a three-year transition period began in which banks and companies must significantly adapt their processes.
The goal is a fully harmonized EU Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) under the supervision of the newly created Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA). This entails far-reaching changes across nearly all compliance areas – from KYC and customer due diligence to transaction monitoring and reporting/documentation obligations.
Beyond AML, additional requirements are tightening. Experts anticipate expanded reimbursement rules in 2026, which could pose major cost risks, particularly in fraud cases. Early fraud detection will therefore become even more critical.
Conclusion: Institutions that invest early in RegTech, data management, and employee training will gain clear advantages and avoid operational bottlenecks later.
7. Digital Euro, Cryptocurrencies, and the Future of Money
Digital currencies will remain a key focus area in 2026. The digital euro project continues to progress, with the legal framework expected to be finalized by mid-2026, enabling a pilot phase starting in 2027. Key topics include privacy, transaction limits, offline capabilities, and the role of banks in distribution.
Meanwhile, crypto as a digital payment method is moving closer to the mainstream. Although cryptocurrencies have been around for years, neo-brokers have dramatically simplified access, accelerating mass adoption. In 2025, many investors shifted strongly into crypto assets due to exceptionally high returns – sometimes outperforming traditional equity markets. Banks are also pushing forward by offering more investment products centered on digital assets.
However, critical questions remain: Is crypto primarily a highly speculative financial product? Or is it evolving into a long-term component of the financial system? How should the significant disruption potential – including its role in money laundering – be managed? And will today’s crypto boom be seen in two or three years as a temporary phenomenon or the start of a new standard?
What is clear: The coming years will be decisive in defining the role cryptocurrencies will play alongside sovereign digital currencies.
Conclusion: 2026 – A Year of Momentum, Risks, and Opportunities
The financial industry enters 2026 at a pivotal moment. AI transformation, payment innovations, tightening regulation, and rising fraud risks define the year ahead. Banks and payment service providers must remain agile while investing strategically in technology, expertise, and European cooperation. One thing is certain: For risk and fraud managers, IT teams, and strategists alike, 2026 will be anything but boring.
About our Expert
Dr. Stephan Lemkens
Solution Owner Compliance | Risk & Fraud
Stephan has been a consultant within the Professional Services Team since 2018, gaining experiences with projects focusing on Transaction and Session Monitoring in the context of fraud prevention. Since 2020 he has been focusing on Compliance, working closely with our customers on projects around Suspicious Activity Monitoring and Customer Due Diligence.